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Magyar27 Oct 2026
A CryptoSlate simulation of 100,000 price paths finds Bitcoin closes above its $126,198 record within a year in 50.4% of cases but stays above it at year end in only 34.8%. Successful paths still suffered a median 18.9% drawdown before crossing.
Bitcoin TradeReviewed News Desk
Bitcoin getting back to its record of $126,198 (set Oct. 6, 2025) and staying there are two very different outcomes, according to a new simulation published by CryptoSlate. In 100,000 modelled paths, Bitcoin closed above the record at least once within a year in 50.4% of cases, but finished the year above it in only 34.8%. Roughly one path in six reclaimed the level and then slipped back below it.
How the model works
CryptoSlate resampled 1,096 daily Bitcoin returns from Oct. 26, 2023 to Oct. 26, 2026 in seven-day blocks, using Coin Metrics daily reference closes and a starting price of $79,950. A crossing counts only as a daily close above the record, not an intraday touch. Over shorter windows the odds are small: 0.15% crossing versus 0.11% finishing above over 30 days, and 6.37% versus 4.21% over 90 days.
In 42.1% of all paths, Bitcoin crossed the record and later closed below it at least once, and 65.2% of paths ended the year below the record, including those that never reached it.
The pain before the breakout
Even the successful paths were not smooth. Among paths that crossed within a year, the median first crossing took 189 days, the median maximum drawdown before crossing was 18.9%, and the 90th percentile drawdown was 30.7%. About 11.4% of those winning paths first fell at least 20% below the starting price.
History tells a similar story. CryptoSlate found seven completed recoveries since 2013 from drawdowns of at least 30%. Four dipped back below the old closing record within 30 days, and all seven saw a peak-to-trough correction of at least 20% within 90 days after the first reclaim.
Odds move, the gap stays
The exact numbers depend heavily on assumptions. Across six model variants, one-year crossing odds ranged from 17.8% to 52.3% and finishing-above odds from 9.3% to 35.4%, but every scenario kept a gap between the two. CryptoSlate stresses these are modelled frequencies, not calibrated probabilities. Its separate published forecast puts the median Bitcoin price on Oct. 26, 2027 at $124,281.
What it means for traders
- Targets are not paths: a year-end price target says nothing about the drawdowns on the way, which is where leveraged positions get liquidated.
- Breakouts can fail: history suggests a first reclaim of the record is often followed by a retest, so a close above $126,198 alone is weak confirmation.
- Size for volatility: an 18.9% median drawdown before success argues for low leverage and wide risk limits.
If you trade BTC, compare fees and liquidity in our crypto exchange comparison, or read our BingX review (our number one pick) and OKX review (number two). For buy-and-hold beginners, see where to buy your first Bitcoin and the cheapest way to buy Bitcoin. This is not financial advice.
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