Bitcoin defends $81,000 as Brent crude hits $116 ahead of Fed meeting

24 Oct 2026

24 Oct 2026, 01:41 UTC+02:00

Oil, not crypto news, set the tone for Bitcoin on Friday. BTC slipped below $81,000 shortly after the Wall Street open, touching $80,988 on TradingView data before recovering to around $81,600, as Brent crude climbed to its highest level in months.

Oil adds a risk premium

Brent rose nearly 3% to about $116 a barrel, a level last seen in March, while WTI crossed $102. Cointelegraph links the move to concerns that the US could renew strikes on Iran around the midterm elections. Economist Robin Brooks noted that prices rose even though oil flows through the Persian Gulf were close to pre-war levels, suggesting markets are pricing in a “huge risk premium.”

Higher oil complicates the inflation outlook just before the Federal Reserve’s 27 to 28 October meeting, where investors overwhelmingly expect rates to stay unchanged. On Thursday the US 10-year Treasury yield had its biggest one-day drop since March 2023, falling to around 4.94%. Gold fell below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since July, according to CoinDesk.

Levels traders are watching

Keith Alan of Material Indicators pointed to the 50-day simple moving average at $81,781. If bulls fail to reclaim it on the daily close, he said he expects “a support test in the $78k – $80k range.” The $80,000 to $81,500 area is also the aggregate cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETF holders, which has acted as support.

ETF flows are not helping. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $635 million in outflows on Thursday, the largest daily outflow since 25 June according to Farside Investors. CoinDesk notes that past outflow days above $300 million were on average followed by lower prices, although the ETF history is short.

One trader cited by CoinDesk counted that the 15 strongest hourly candles since 1 July produced Bitcoin’s entire 39% gain over that period, a reminder of how concentrated rallies can be.

What it means for traders

• Macro drives the tape: oil, yields and the Fed decision matter more than crypto headlines this week. Avoid opening leveraged positions right before the Fed announcement.
• Define your levels: $81,781 and $78,000 to $80,000 are the zones most analysts cite.
• Keep costs low: choppy markets punish frequent trading. Check our crypto exchange fee index and exchange comparison before picking a venue. Not financial advice.

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Sources

• Cointelegraph: Bitcoin seeks support above $81K as Brent crude oil hits highest level since March
• CoinDesk: Live updates: Bitcoin holds above $81,000 as oil prices hit six-month high

News is for information only and is not financial advice. More crypto news