Bitcoin faces 874,000 BTC of overhead supply near $82,500 as Bitfinex flags rally selling risk

27 Oct 2026

27 Oct 2026, 16:22 UTC+01:00

Bitcoin TradeReviewed News Desk

Bitcoin has a crowded zone of potential sellers sitting just above the current price. In its Bitfinex Alpha report of Oct. 26, Bitfinex estimated that roughly 874,000 BTC was accumulated between $81,000 and $82,500, and described it as supply held by potential sellers on any recovery attempt. CryptoSlate, which highlighted the report on Tuesday, said Bitcoin dipped as low as $79,370 over the previous 24 hours before recovering to around $80,100.

Why $81,300 matters now

According to Bitfinex, $81,300 was the lower edge of Bitcoin’s trading range for several weeks and the highest-volume price level between the old $68,000 range highs and the recent local high. Bitcoin closed below it on Oct. 22, 23 and 24 and fell to $79,250 on Oct. 24, a 9.3% correction. That came shortly after a push to $84,930, just above the $84,374 average cost basis of US spot ETF holders.

Bitfinex says the old support has flipped to resistance: the first bounce after losing the level was sold by holders who had bought dips beneath it. The 874,000 BTC figure describes coins tied to that price band, not confirmed sell orders, but even a slice of it coming back to market could slow a recovery if new demand stays thin.

ETF flows are not convincing yet

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on Oct. 26, all of it through BlackRock’s IBIT, while every other fund saw zero net flows, according to CryptoSlate. That followed two outflow sessions totaling $773.5 million, leaving the three days roughly $663 million net negative.

Leverage has also built up. Bitfinex data cited by CryptoSlate shows aggregate futures open interest rising from 645,411 BTC on Oct. 21 to 669,253 BTC on Oct. 25 even as price fell, while short liquidations cluster around $82,300 to $83,000.

Key levels and the Fed

Bitfinex puts key support at $77,000 to $77,765, where the ‘new whale’ cost basis and the True Market Mean sit. It also flags about 739,000 BTC accumulated between $77,500 and $80,000. The Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on Oct. 28, and PCE inflation data follows on Oct. 29. Bitfinex expects rates to stay unchanged and argues that any advance will need renewed spot buying rather than easier financial conditions.

What it means for traders

• Upside test: a sustained reclaim of $81,300 and a break through $82,500 with returning ETF inflows would, in Bitfinex’s view, signal that consolidation is ending. A squeeze through the $82,300 to $83,000 liquidation cluster is possible.
• Failure case: repeated rejections near $81,300 to $82,500 would confirm the band as resistance and bring $79,250 and then $77,000 to $77,765 back into focus.
• Event risk: rising open interest into the Fed and PCE releases raises the odds of sharp moves both ways, so size positions and leverage accordingly.

If you trade BTC spot or perpetuals around these levels, compare fees and liquidity in our crypto exchange comparison, or read our BingX review (our number one pick) and OKX review (number two). For more context on leveraged positioning, see our report on the Bitcoin long cluster near $81,993, and our how we test page explains the scoring. This is not financial advice.

Related reviews

• Bingx review
• Okx review

Sources

• Bitfinex Alpha: Bitcoin Tests Key Support as Fed Decision Looms
• CryptoSlate: Bitcoin's next rally could trigger selling from holders of 874,000 BTC

News is for information only and is not financial advice. More crypto news