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Magyar26 Oct 2026
Galaxy Digital's head of research Alex Thorn says Bitcoin's bear market ended in June and the asset is now in an accumulation phase. He points to five straight weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, fading selling pressure and a stronger macro case, with a weekly close below about $76,540 as the line that would change his view.
Bitcoin TradeReviewed News Desk
Galaxy Digital’s research desk has called the bottom. In a report published Monday, Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, argued that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that BTC has moved into an accumulation phase. “Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” he wrote, as reported by Decrypt and The Block.
The call lands with Bitcoin trading around $80,000, about 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low. BTC briefly slipped to roughly $79,700 on Sunday.
Bitcoin bear market over: the chart case
Thorn’s argument starts with the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below it before reclaiming it in September, and the week ending October 18 was its fifth straight weekly close above the line. Since 2011, BTC has reclaimed the average after a stretch of 20 weeks or more four times, and in each case it never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year before eventually making a new all-time high.
The halving cycle points the same way, according to the report. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after a halving. This drawdown was also the shallowest on record at 53%, against 77% to 93% in earlier cycles.
On-chain data and ETF flows
For the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin’s market value never fell below its realized value. The MVRV ratio bottomed at 1.10, compared with lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in prior cycles. Short-term holders have an average cost of $74,811 and sit about 9% in profit, while the spent-output profit ratio of 1.009 suggests few of them are taking gains.
Selling from long-dormant coins (unmoved for five years or more) has slowed to about 34,000 BTC a month this year, half the 2024 pace. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low.
The macro argument and the tripwire
Thorn also cites US federal debt of $40.44 trillion, a $1.99 trillion fiscal 2026 deficit and a 10-year Treasury yield that hit 5.31% this month. “A bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet on fiat, the one position that makes no sense today,” he wrote. He added that Bitcoin “has proven its ability to run to at least $125k.”
His invalidation level is a weekly close below the 50-week average, currently about $76,540, that is not regained within a month. Galaxy and Thorn both disclose that they hold Bitcoin.
What it means for traders
- Key level: the 50-week average near $76,540 is now the line bulls and bears will watch on weekly closes.
- Macro risk remains: ETF flows turned negative late last week and markets are pricing another possible Fed hike in December, so a bottom call does not remove short-term volatility.
- Where to trade BTC: compare fees and liquidity in our crypto exchange comparison, read our BingX review and OKX review, and see how we test exchanges.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Related reviews
Sources
- Decrypt: Bitcoin's Bear Market Is Over, Galaxy Research Says: 'Now Is an Attractive Time to Buy'
- The Block: Galaxy says bitcoin bear market is over; now is the time to buy and hold
News is for information only and is not financial advice. More crypto news
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