Bitcoin’s July low may have broken the midterm election bottom pattern

24 Oct 2026

24 Oct 2026, 02:03 UTC+02:00

With US midterm elections only days away, Bitcoin traders are revisiting an old pattern. In the last three cycles, major bear market lows arrived shortly after the midterms. This year looks different.

The historical pattern

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, roughly 71, 38 and 13 days after the preceding midterm election days. The run-up was painful too: Bitcoin fell about 29% in the six months before the 2018 vote and 37% before the 2022 vote.

This cycle came early

This time the lowest price so far came much earlier. Bitcoin touched $57,850 on 1 July, about 125 days before the 3 November election. By 22 October it had recovered to around $81,455, roughly 40% above that low, even after falling about 6% over the past 30 days.

Technology stocks show a less consistent link. The Invesco QQQ Trust fell about 23% from the end of September 2018 to its December low and 17% in the three months before the 2022 vote, but it gained 17% in the six months before the 2014 midterms. Over the past 90 days Bitcoin is up about 26% versus 3% for QQQ, which hit an all-time high of $762.86 on 6 October.

CoinDesk’s conclusion is that Bitcoin’s midterm weakness reflects its own four year market cycle more than any election effect. In past cycles, the midterm year simply overlapped with the late stage of a crypto bear market.

What it means for traders

• Patterns are not laws: three data points do not make a reliable model. Treat cycle analogies as context, not a trading signal.
• Watch real catalysts: next week’s Fed meeting, ETF flows and oil prices are likely to matter more than the vote itself, although election results can move crypto policy expectations.
• Plan entries: if you accumulate, consider spreading buys over time instead of trying to catch an exact bottom. Our fee calculator helps estimate trading costs, and our exchange comparison ranks exchanges. Not financial advice.

Sources

• CoinDesk: Bitcoin appears to have decoupled from midterm cycle bottom history

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