Bitcoin liquidity watch: Treasury dealers’ bill holdings hit two-year high before October 30 funding test

26 Oct 2026

TL;DR

Primary dealers' net holdings of US Treasury bills have reached a two-year high, according to the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York's October 23 update. With October 30 flagged as a funding pressure point, traders are watching whether repo strain could spill into Bitcoin leverage, which has been rebuilding.

Markets TradeReviewed News Desk

Treasury dealers’ net holdings of US government bills have climbed to a two-year high, according to the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York (FHLBNY) update dated October 23, as reported by CryptoSlate. Financing those inventories puts dealer balance sheet capacity in focus ahead of October 30, even though overnight dollar funding still looks calm.

Why dealer balance sheets matter

FHLBNY attributes wider bill spreads partly to heavy issuance and to money market funds shortening their portfolios amid uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy. Some cash has moved out of bill buying and into overnight and short-term repurchase agreements (repo). That supports overnight lending, but it also means dealers are holding large bill inventories that need funding.

The key distinction is between cash being available and intermediaries having room to pass it on. A 2024 Federal Reserve staff study, cited by CryptoSlate, explains that routing repo cash from money funds to leveraged borrowers expands dealer balance sheets, and its authors hypothesize that tighter constraints raise the compensation dealers demand.

October 30 pressure points

For now, overnight conditions remain steady. New York Fed data available on October 25 put SOFR, the Treasury-backed overnight benchmark, at 3.9% for October 22, up from 3.88% on October 21. FHLBNY said SOFR stayed at or below the Fed’s 3.9% interest rate on reserve balances during the report week.

FHLBNY flags two upcoming pressures: Canadian bank year-end on October 30 and cash leaving repo to pay mortgage-backed security holders. It says SOFR may test 3.9% more steadily. Calmer Thursday bill auctions than the week before are a counterweight.

Bitcoin leverage is rebuilding

On the crypto side, Coinbase Institutional research from October 23 reported Bitcoin perpetual funding rising from 0.1% annualized on October 13 to 7.2% a week later, which its Prime Trading commentary read as momentum longs adding exposure. Coinbase’s financing table dated October 22 listed indicative centralized-finance overnight rates of 4.25% to 12.5% and a Bitcoin borrowing range of 1.25% to 4.75%.

CryptoSlate stresses that a direct Treasury-to-Bitcoin link is not proven. The case would strengthen only if repo pressure persisted while crypto borrowing terms worsened and market depth thinned. Stable crypto financing would weaken it.

What it means for traders

This article is for information only and is not investment advice.

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