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Magyar29 Oct 2026
Glassnode says long-term holders own about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly in 2025, and many could sell near break-even. With bitcoin around $81,400, US spot ETF holders are also close to their average cost of roughly $81,500 to $82,000.
Bitcoin TradeReviewed News Desk
Bitcoin is running into a wall of potential sellers. Long-term holders are sitting on unrealised losses on about 4 million BTC bought between $85,000 and $118,000, mostly during 2025, according to a note from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported by Decrypt. If the price climbs back toward that range, many of those holders may sell to get out at break-even.
The $85,000 ceiling
Glassnode defines long-term holders as wallets that have held coins for more than 155 days. More than half of all long-term holder coins were bought above the current price, the firm said. At a bitcoin price of about $81,400, that 4 million BTC block is worth roughly $326 billion. Bitcoin is about 35% below its all-time high of $126,080.
A band between $84,000 and $85,000 has turned bitcoin back four times this year, and BTC has closed above it on only five days since January, never more than three in a row. The last break above came in September, when the price peaked at $87,100.
ETF holders are near break-even too
Glassnode puts the average cost basis of US spot bitcoin ETFs at $81,500. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimated it just under $82,000 and said bitcoin has hovered around that level since late August. His chart showed ETF holders with an average unrealised loss of about $2.63 billion as of Monday, based on fund flows only.
Flows have improved this week. US spot bitcoin ETFs took in about $424 million from Monday to Wednesday, per SoSoValue data, after $635 million left the funds on October 22.
Fed and yields in the background
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday in a 10-2 vote, with two dissenters favouring a hike. Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey, told Decrypt that high Treasury yields and real rates are the real constraint, as they raise the opportunity cost of holding risk assets. The 10-year yield sat just under 5% on Thursday.
Selling pressure looks light, though. Glassnode said realised losses have shrunk with each dip since August: about $630 million net in a day at the August low versus about $27 million around the October 24 dip. Sun called the problem “insufficient new buying interest” rather than panic selling.
What it means for traders
- Resistance: the $84,000 to $85,000 band, with heavy break-even supply up to $118,000.
- Support: about $42 million in Binance bids between $78,000 and $79,000, and the newer-buyer cost basis at $75,800, per Glassnode.
- Sun expects a $75,000 to $85,000 range in the short term until macro liquidity improves and ETF inflows become steady.
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This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
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