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Magyar25 Oct 2026
BloFin CEO Matt Hu argues that ETFs and corporate treasuries have made Bitcoin's holder base more patient, which could soften future crashes. That view is now being tested as BTC trades near $80,000, close to the average cost basis of ETF buyers and treasury companies.
Bitcoin TradeReviewed News Desk
A different kind of Bitcoin holder
Bitcoin’s boom-and-bust cycles may be getting milder, according to BloFin CEO Matt Hu. Speaking to BeInCrypto at TOKEN2049 in Singapore, Hu said the biggest change in the market is who owns Bitcoin. Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have brought in investors with longer time horizons, which in his view reduces the kind of panic selling that drove past crashes.
BloFin Research estimates that US spot Bitcoin ETFs held roughly 1.3 million BTC, broadly unchanged since January despite headlines about large daily inflows and outflows. The firm also calculates that the latest bear-market drawdown reached about 53%, compared with declines of roughly 77% to 85% in earlier cycles. That comparison only holds if June remains the cycle bottom.
The thesis is being tested right now
The timing is uncomfortable. Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 over the weekend, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $635.6 million in net outflows on October 22, after three sessions that had attracted more than $1 billion. Glassnode estimates the average acquisition cost of ETF investors near $81,500 and of Bitcoin treasury companies near $80,200. Sustained trading below those levels would leave both groups underwater on average.
Hu was specific about what would prove him wrong: a sustained decline in ETF Bitcoin holdings, widespread forced selling by treasury companies, and a shrinking long-term holder base on on-chain metrics. Glassnode marks $85,000 to $87,500 as resistance, while analysts cited by BeInCrypto warn that losing the $80,000 to $82,000 zone could open a move toward $73,000 to $75,000.
Bond yields are the near-term headwind
Hu sees government debt as a possible long-term catalyst, but not yet. With the US 10-year Treasury yield ending October 23 near 5% and Brent crude above $116, bonds offer attractive income that competes with a non-yielding asset like Bitcoin. His longer-term scenario is “financial repression”, where heavily indebted governments push real yields below inflation, which could push savers toward scarce assets. For now, markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision.
Why altseason may not come back
Hu is more skeptical about altcoins. He argues that tokenized stocks and other real-world assets now compete for the speculative capital that used to rotate from Bitcoin into smaller tokens. CoinGecko’s third-quarter report, cited in the interview, showed spot trading volume down 14.2% while perpetual futures open interest rose 40.6%, a sign that leverage is growing faster than real demand.
What it means for traders
The levels to watch are concrete: the $80,000 to $82,000 support area that sits around the cost basis of ETF and treasury holders, and the $85,000 to $87,500 resistance band. Weekly changes in total ETF BTC holdings say more about long-term demand than single-day flow headlines. With open interest rising faster than spot volume, leveraged positions carry extra liquidation risk around the Fed meeting, so position size and stop placement matter more than usual. Altcoin traders should not assume a Bitcoin recovery will automatically lift the broader market.
If you are choosing where to trade, see our crypto exchange comparison and how we test exchanges. Our current top picks are BingX and OKX.
Not financial advice.
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