Bitcoin vs S&P 500: BTC wins most October sessions but still trails the month as IBIT takes 96% of ETF inflows

28 Oct 2026

28 Oct 2026, 12:15 UTC+01:00

Bitcoin TradeReviewed News Desk

Bitcoin has been winning more days than it loses against US stocks this month, but it is still behind on the scoreboard that matters. According to an analysis by CryptoSlate, BTC outperformed the S&P 500 on 10 of 18 October sessions through Oct. 26, a 55.6% win rate. Over the same stretch Bitcoin fell 4.25% while the S&P 500 rose 0.33%, leaving a 4.58% gap in favour of stocks.

Small wins, big losses

The math explains the gap. On its 10 winning days Bitcoin’s average edge over the index was about 0.71%. On its eight losing days the average shortfall was 1.44%, roughly twice as large. Glassnode data cited in the report shows Bitcoin’s relative win rate against the S&P 500 has recovered above 50%, up from about one session in five in June, its weakest stretch in roughly six years.

One ETF is doing the buying

Demand through spot ETFs is heavily concentrated. Coinbase Institutional’s Oct. 23 report found BlackRock’s IBIT drew about $6 billion since Aug. 1, against roughly $500 million for all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs combined. Farside Investors data through Oct. 26 puts IBIT’s share of net inflows at 96.3%. In October alone IBIT added about $866 million while rival funds lost more than $1 billion, leaving the whole category around $203 million in net outflows. CryptoSlate notes that the rising share reflects redemptions elsewhere as much as fresh buying at IBIT.

Other signals point to soft spot demand: stablecoin supply sits about $12.7 billion below its May peak, the seven-day Coinbase premium stayed negative through October, and options 25-delta skew rose to 10.4% from 8.9%, a sign of stronger demand for downside protection.

What it means for traders

• Levels in the report: Coinbase cites an ETF cost basis near $81,300. A Fed hold and steady ETF inflows could open a path toward $82,500 to $84,400, while a break below $77,000 to $77,800 would expose the $73,000 to $75,000 zone.
• Volatility is cheap: one-month implied volatility near 35% sits in the bottom 7th percentile since 2019, implying a one-standard-deviation weekly move of about 4.8%.
• Watch the breadth: net flows at non-IBIT ETFs, stablecoin supply and the Coinbase premium will show whether the recovery broadens.
• Execution costs: in a range-bound market fees eat into returns. Compare venues in our crypto exchange comparison; in our testing BingX ranks first and OKX second. See how we test exchanges.

This article is for information only and is not financial advice.

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Sources

• CryptoSlate: Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 on most trading days but still loses the month

News is for information only and is not financial advice. More crypto news