Fed week, PCE and an $11 billion Bitcoin options expiry: what traders face this week

25 Oct 2026

25 Oct 2026, 19:05 UTC+01:00

Markets TradeReviewed News Desk

A packed week from Wednesday to Friday

Crypto traders head into one of the busiest macro weeks of the quarter. According to BeInCrypto, the Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, US PCE inflation data and the European Central Bank decision follow on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan decides on Friday, the same day a large batch of Bitcoin options expires on Deribit.

Bitcoin traded at about $80,472 on Sunday, per the report, well short of its early October peak above $86,000.

The Fed: a pause now, a hike later?

The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, taking its key rate to a 3.75% to 4.00% range. For Wednesday’s meeting, CME FedWatch shows a 90.6% probability of no change, a sharp shift from a month ago, when a hike was the favourite at 64.2%.

December looks different. FedWatch prices a December hike at roughly 68%, and BeInCrypto cites a Reuters poll in which all 100 surveyed economists expect one. Yardeni Research argued the committee should move this week but will not because the US midterm elections on November 3 are so close. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

PCE inflation is the number to watch

Thursday brings the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect a 3.7% year on year reading, per MarketWatch, up from 3.4% in August and well above the Fed’s 2% target. Third quarter GDP growth is expected at 3.2%, up from 2.2% in the previous quarter.

Bond markets are already tight: the US 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5% on Friday after touching 5.33% on October 14. A hotter PCE print would strengthen the case for a December hike, a cooler one would weaken it.

ECB and Bank of Japan add pressure

• ECB (Thursday): 70 of 73 economists in a Reuters poll expect a hold at 2.50%, with most expecting a December hike.
• Bank of Japan (Friday): its 1.25% policy rate is already the highest since 1995. Rising Japanese rates can pressure yen-funded carry trades that also flow into risk assets, including crypto.

The $11 billion Bitcoin options expiry

At 4 a.m. ET on Friday, Bitcoin options worth about $10.97 billion expire on Deribit, covering roughly 35% of all open Bitcoin contracts on the venue. Calls outnumber puts by almost two to one. The single largest position, about 19,950 BTC, sits at the $95,000 strike, which would require a rise of around 18% in five days. Deribit data shows that the largest share of these contracts would expire worthless at $78,000, the so-called max pain level.

History cuts both ways. BeInCrypto notes that Bitcoin fell from about $82,000 to the low $60,000s in May and June as rate cut hopes faded, yet it briefly rose when the Fed actually hiked in September.

What it means for traders

Expect event-driven volatility from Wednesday evening through Friday, especially around the PCE release and the options expiry window. Pinning effects near large strikes and funding rate swings on perpetual futures are common around big expiries, so position sizing and stop placement matter more than usual. Traders using leverage should check margin, liquidation levels and fees on their platform before the data hits.

If you are choosing where to trade, see our crypto exchange comparison, read how we test exchanges, or check our reviews of BingX (ranked #1) and OKX (ranked #2). This article is for information only and is not financial advice.

Related reviews

• Bingx review
• Okx review

Sources

• BeInCrypto: Fed Week Puts Stocks, Bitcoin, and DXY on Collision Course Before $11 Billion Expiry

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