EN
Español
Português (Brasil)
Türkçe
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Polski
Čeština
Română
Slovenčina
Magyar22 Oct 2026
Bitcoin fell about 3% on Thursday to around $81,256 as US stocks dropped after President Trump said the US was "not negotiating" with Iran. BTC is now hovering near the roughly $81,500 cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, with Bitfinex analysts expecting a tight range until the Fed meeting on 28 October.
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its daily losses to about 3% on Thursday, 22 October, as renewed geopolitical tension pushed US stocks lower around the Wall Street open. TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph showed BTC/USD touching $81,256 on Bitstamp, down 2.9% on the day, after the price had climbed to nearly $85,000 a day earlier.
Trump’s Iran comments add to risk-off mood
President Donald Trump repeated that new military action against Iran was possible and said the US was “not negotiating” with the Iranian side. Speaking to reporters, he said something would happen “fairly soon”, adding that most people seemed to think it would come after the US midterm elections on 3 November.
The comments landed on a market already nervous about tech. Mixed reactions to Tesla earnings and spending plans, together with renewed worries about AI valuations, weighed on equities. At the time of Cointelegraph’s report, the S&P 500 was down 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite was 2.3% lower. Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets told Bloomberg that Treasuries had become “a primary beneficiary” as global risk sentiment weakened, and the US 10-year yield slipped to its lowest level since 23 September.
Why $81,500 matters
Around $81,500 sits the average cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), meaning the level at which ETF holders on average bought in. Bitcoin has been circling that zone, so it acts as a reference point for whether ETF investors as a group are in profit or under water.
Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of exchange Bitfinex, forecast on Wednesday that BTC/USD would trade in a narrow band between $81,300 and $84,400 until the Federal Reserve’s next rate meeting on 28 October. According to the analysts, steady ETF demand with stable leverage could support a breakout above $84,400, while macro headwinds and a close below $81,300 would raise the risk of a move toward the 15 October low at $79,821.
Longer term sentiment is cautious too. Cointelegraph noted that Kalshi traders have cut the odds of Bitcoin setting a new all-time high by mid-January 2027 to just 3%.
What it means for traders
- Watch the range edges: $84,400 on the upside and $81,300 on the downside are the levels Bitfinex analysts flagged. A daily close outside either could set the next direction, with $79,821 as the next reference below.
- Macro is driving crypto: Bitcoin is trading alongside tech stocks and geopolitical headlines, so the Fed decision on 28 October and any Iran news can move prices quickly.
- Manage leverage: tight ranges near key levels often end with sharp moves. Use stop losses and size positions so a wick through $81,300 or $84,400 does not liquidate you.
- Pick a solid venue: fees, liquidity and risk tools matter most in volatile weeks. See our BingX review and OKX review, or compare platforms side by side in our exchange comparison. Our methodology explains how we rate them.
What to watch next
Key dates are the Fed meeting on 28 October and the US midterms on 3 November. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows will also show whether demand holds up while the price sits near the funds’ average cost basis.
Related reviews
Sources
News is for information only and is not financial advice. More crypto news
Get crypto news first on our Telegram channel.
Join on Telegram