JPMorgan adds Bitcoin to long-term outlook, sees 10% annual returns

20 Oct 2026

20 Oct 2026, 13:24 UTC+02:00

Bitcoin now has a line in one of Wall Street’s most widely read planning documents. JPMorgan Asset Management published its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on Monday, and for the first time the report includes Bitcoin. The annual outlook covers more than 200 assets and is used by investors to plan portfolio allocations.

The numbers

JPMorgan projects a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin over the next decade. For comparison, it expects 7.5% from large-cap US stocks and 5.5% from gold. The bank’s bull case puts Bitcoin’s annualized return at 16.6%, while its bear case projects an annualized loss of 11.2%. The model considered Bitcoin’s supply growth relative to money supply, a potential role alongside gold and network adoption.

Bullish on returns, cautious on role

The report stops well short of recommending Bitcoin as a core holding. “At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations,” it said. “We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”

That distinction matters. An asset can have high expected returns and still be a poor diversifier if it tends to fall at the same time as stocks. Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has shifted many times, which makes it hard to model in a traditional portfolio.

Industry reaction

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed the inclusion on X, joking that critics first ignore Bitcoin and eventually add it to their capital market assumptions and predict it will be the best-performing asset of the decade. Bitwise has a far more aggressive view: in August 2025 it projected Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035, with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.

What it means for traders

• Institutional legitimacy: inclusion in a mainstream asset allocation report makes it easier for advisers and pension funds to justify small Bitcoin positions.
• Wide range of outcomes: a spread between +16.6% and -11.2% a year is huge. Position sizing matters more than the headline forecast.
• Long-term holders: if you plan to buy and hold, low fees and strong custody count for more than trading features. Our exchange comparison and testing methodology show how exchanges stack up on both.

What to watch next

Watch whether other large asset managers follow with their own long-term Bitcoin assumptions, and whether JPMorgan changes its view on Bitcoin as a diversifier in next year’s edition.

Related reviews

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• Kraken review

Sources

• Cointelegraph: JPMorgan projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks and gold over next decade

News is for information only and is not financial advice. More crypto news